Market report

Strong demand from China is causing much uncertainty in the Macadamia market. China keeps buying more and more In-shells which makes availability for kernels tighter. Packers are taking less risks and decide to go for easy selling without processing to kernels. As demand from China will probably not get less, we expect this will be a difficult year.

Besides less availability the weather in Africa and Australia in the past weeks is also not very promising for crop developments. The cyclone in Australia and the drought in Africa we currently see is getting the market a little more insecure and tensed. Therefore at this moment we see very few offers.

Australia:

After the tropical Cyclone Debbie hit the Australia Northeast coast end of March, we have seen reports of significant limb and young tree damage in some areas.

The impact of the storm and flooding of some orchards is not expected to be significant for the total 2017 crop volumes as a large proportion of the damage was done to younger non-producing trees. It might be of influence for future volumes. 

With high demand from China for In-shell and whole kernels we expect the Australian Macadamia market to be very tight for this crop.

Africa

Due to the latest drought we see a more tensed market and most packers are not offering much.
Most South African suppliers are well sold, while harvesting have only just started.

Processors will wait a couple of weeks to see what the actual crop looks like before they sell the last bit of product.

We did manage to find some availability in Kenya although the actual shipment date is still unsecure. June might be the best guess for spot availability in Europe.

Advice:

If you need to fulfil your demands don’t expect prices to get lower and secure these especially in style 0,1 and 2. For short term demand we advise to book your needs for the next 2 months. Spot availability is very minimal. As new crop will be available in Europe probably around June, make sure your needs are booked to cover this period.

All prices are subject to final confirmation by Antares Commodities.

*             Other grades and varieties can be offered upon request.

The Brazil nuts market for current crop can be seen as one of the worst in decades. Latest figures tell about 60-70% will be shipped less compared to last year. The industry is suffering from enormous shortages and packers are in serious difficulties to fulfil old contracts which have been contracted before we all knew the situation was going to be this bad.

Prices of raw material went sky-high and none of the packers does have any advantages by shipping these contracts. In fact they will al suffer big losses. Postponing these contracts to next crop is for some of these packers the only way to survive. Factories will be closed for months and workers can’t be paid. Especially in the Riberalta area this will have a big influence on the living conditions of these people as most of the economy in this area is depending on the Brazil nut industry.

We expect no new offers from packers this year as all available raw material will be used for pending contracts. Although we expect some (smaller) packers don’t have any choice and will go into default.

Prices have been rising above US$ 7,- per lbs FOB and in the local spot market we have even seen higher prices for old crop. We don’t think prices will go down the next 8-10 months. Packers will be extremely cautious with offering new crop.

Advice:

If you are able to find availability in the local spot market, fulfil your needs for the next 8 months.

Antares is currently not able to offer any Brazil nuts from origin or in spot positions. If you are able to offer us your available Brazil nuts, please don’t hesitate and make us an offer. We are interested in any midget or medium grades from different origins.

Yesterday the Almond Board of California released the March Position Report with shipments reaching +178 million pounds compared to +161 million pounds last year for an increase of  +10.6 percent.

The year to date shipments are now at +1.447  billion pounds compared to 1.153 billion pounds last year an increase of +25.5 percent.

For April most industry experts expect another strong month of shipments.  Expectations are for similar shipments to last year, which was when cheaper prices entered the market and shipments accelerated.

New Crop

Last week we received the latest crop estimates for the 2017 crop and first expectations are higher compared to previous year. The crop looks overall good and it seems the crops did not suffer any obvious damage from the extreme rains before and during the bloom. 

With more bearing acres, an increase in overall productivity and new plantings total expectations are around 2,27 billion Pounds, which is an increase of 4,5%.   

Conclusion:

With increasing crop estimates and remarkable better shipment figures we expect more availability in the market and higher stocks in available spot business. Question is if the demand for these stocks will keep increasing as well. Or will prices be adjusted marketwise?

Advice:

We advise to book your needs for the coming 2 months take a wait-and see attitude for the new crop offers. Depending on new figures, prices will be adjusted.

All prices are subject to final confirmation by Antares Commodities.

*             Other grades and varieties can be offered upon request.